The Iran war may not divide BRICS politically — but economically
It could expose the fragile fault lines beneath the dream of a multipolar world.
The escalating Iran conflict could emerge as one of the defining economic stress points for the BRICS bloc in the near future. While BRICS nations — particularly India, China, Russia, Brazil, South Africa, Iran, UAE, and Egypt — were brought together by a shared vision of multipolar economic power, the war exposes the bloc’s internal contradictions and vulnerabilities.
The most immediate impact will be on energy security. Iran’s strategic control over the Strait of Hormuz — through which nearly 20% of global oil trade passes — makes the conflict extremely sensitive for energy-importing BRICS members like India and China. Any prolonged disruption could sharply raise crude prices, widen trade deficits, fuel inflation, and weaken currencies across emerging economies.
India, in particular, faces a dual challenge: rising import bills and pressure on the rupee. China may partially absorb the shock through long-term energy contracts and strategic reserves, but manufacturing and export costs could still rise substantially. South Africa and Brazil may witness commodity-linked volatility, while Russia could temporarily benefit from higher oil prices and alternative energy demand.
At a structural level, the Iran war is accelerating BRICS’ push toward de-dollarization. Increased settlement of oil trade in yuan, dirham, or local currencies reflects a growing desire to reduce dependence on the US dollar-dominated financial system. However, this shift remains fragmented and politically uneven. BRICS is not yet a unified economic alliance capable of coordinated monetary action.
The conflict also threatens global supply chains, aviation, shipping, and investor confidence. If the war expands regionally, BRICS economies may face stagflation-like conditions — slow growth combined with high inflation — similar to past oil shocks.
Ultimately, the Iran war may not break BRICS, but it could redefine its priorities: from ambitious geopolitical rhetoric to survival-driven economic coordination.
