Budget 2026 presents a mixed picture for markets, with a strong infrastructure push offering tailwinds to the real economy, while proposed derivatives tax changes introduce fresh headwinds for parts of the financial ecosystem.
On the winning side, companies linked to roads, railways, ports, power, urban infrastructure, and capital goods stand to benefit from continued public capex by the Government of India. Construction firms, cement and steel makers, engineering companies, and logistics players are expected to see improved order inflows and earnings visibility as large projects gain momentum. Banks and NBFCs financing infrastructure may also benefit from higher credit demand and long-term lending opportunities.
Real estate could gain indirectly through improved connectivity, metro expansion, and urban redevelopment, which typically unlock housing and commercial demand along new infrastructure corridors.
However, the proposed changes to derivatives taxation could create short-term pain for active traders, proprietary desks, and market intermediaries reliant on high volumes. Higher taxes may dampen speculative activity, reduce trading volumes, and impact exchanges and brokerages focused on derivatives-heavy revenue models.
Market experts say the budget reflects a clear policy choice: prioritising long-term economic capacity building over short-term financial market activity. While infrastructure-linked sectors emerge as clear gainers, derivatives-focused participants may need to recalibrate strategies.
Overall, Budget 2026 reinforces India’s capex-led growth path—even as it redraws the risk–reward equation in financial markets.
